Nov
27
Friday, November 27 Update
ByHello everyone,
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Sidenote: Some of you have expressed an interest in going long on the AUD/USD (based on the post yesterday), but I would not recommend it. The support line has been broken to the downside which may be an early signal of a change in trend. Personally, I’ll be staying out of the AUD/USD for now.
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7 Comments
November 27th, 2009 at 4:34 am
Hi Chris, I have taken a trend line on daily chart, which is different from yours. This will be the same if I take this line from April 20 low to Nov 29 low. Is this yours trend line support in EurUsd Daily chart? Yhank you
November 27th, 2009 at 4:58 am
In the H4 Chart, if we take a fibo line from Nov 3 low to Nov 25 high, as well an other fibo from Nov 20 low to the same point Nov 25 high, we will ahve to 50 % leveles, one at the 1.4882 and the other one at 1.4968. Both fibo lines have started from two strong support point in the support line, so both are good point for analysis.
After that, we have created a zone between 1.4882 and 1.4968, which could consider as a retracement zone of the EurUsd price.
I fully agree with you about the possibility the price to brokes the support line in some days time.
But, up to now, 4:55 GMT, the H4 chart gives us candles that are not so strong like yestaday, there are also some buyer to fight against the sellers. My oppinion is that, if this situation created today, will continue with candles losing momentum, probably, the price will come down to the support level about than could be time to see if a reversal pattern will be created. Is this something that could happen, Chris?
November 27th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Hi Terry,
Under normal circumstances I would be more convinced to consider going long. In light of the coming weekend however, I would prefer to wait until Monday to trade.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
So, Is this mean that, in the midle of the week, this analysis could be a right one?
November 28th, 2009 at 3:23 am
Hi Chris,
l have been following closely your daily update and l am really admire your patient…, l have learnt a lot from it and l am more cool now than before..:-) l start to develop that mindset of “let the price reach the level that l want instead of chasing after it… Right now l am outside the country and getting online at the right time is not that feasible for me. “l hope l am able to online at the right time and strike at the right time !!
l notice you always mention that for aggresive traders, they might want to go short before the price fall to the level that you intended to go in for long… My question is in order for price to fall to that level, it is an opportunity to go short but you prefer not to… any specific reasons apart from being aggresive? l tried to figure out other possible reasons… but never find one that is satisfactory :-)
November 28th, 2009 at 4:06 am
Terry, yes!
November 28th, 2009 at 4:19 am
Hi Toh,
That’s good… learning to “cool down” is one of the hardest things to learn as a trader. Never let the market dictate where or when you place your trades. You call the shots.
Regarding your question, I don’t take short trades because the market is in an uptrend. Trading against the trend is usually not a good idea although it can provide some extra pips along the way. Once you start trading larger lot sizes you’ll want to avoid taking these riskier trades (unless you trade them with smaller lot sizes). There are actually plenty of trend trading opportunities on the other currency pairs so there is really no need to trade counter trend.
The aggressive trades that I suggest are for our more adventurous traders, and to give everyone an idea of where I expect the market to move, although I may not trade on that expectation for reasons I have just explained above.
:-)