My EUR/USD position from yesterday got stopped out for a +1 pip gain… I can’t say I’m surprised.

Today is a Friday, and I’m generally hesitant to open any positions on Fridays because I don’t like to keep positions over the weekend (unless they’re already in-the-money).

I’ll still be keeping an eye out for the EUR/USD pair and enter into a short if I see a good setup.

GMT 15:11 – There has been no sell signal on the EUR/USD so far, and I’m going to call it a day.

Weekly roundup

This week we have identified 2 good setups on the USD/CHF and USD/CAD pairs.

We could have made 288 pips on the USD/CHF and 228 pips on the USD/CAD, but did not enter into either trade because we were being conservative.

At this point, I can’t say I’m disappointed but it would have been nice to end the week with a +516 pip gain. As traders, it’s our job to be adaptable to market changes, so we may be looking to trade slightly more aggressively next week.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Yesterday’s USD/CAD daily candle formed as a doji as we had expected:

Price has not bounced off the resistance level so far, so I’ll be monitoring this currency pair for the rest of the day. If it breaks the 2-day low, I’ll look for a signal to go short.

On the other hand, I’m also looking to short the USD/CHF pair. If you recall, we have been paying special attention to this pair for a few days now, and yesterday it finally started to move. Here’s the daily chart:

I’m going to wait for price to move up a little more before going short. I’m a ‘cheap’ trader, which means I like to get into my positions at a ‘bargain price’.  :-)

GMT 8:00 – I just got a nice short signal for the USD/CHF pair, but I will give this trade a pass because there are a couple of important economic announcements (regarding the swiss economy) coming up in the next hour, and I don’t want to be caught in any ‘funny’ and unpredictable price action. Patience is key.

GMT 9:19 – Ah! Prices have dropped 70 pips within the hour! This could have been an easy +70 pips in my pocket… but alas, I will stick to my strategy and not chase the price. I will stick to my plan and short only after a retracement.

GMT 10:21 – Prices have dropped 120 pips from when I got the short signal – far quicker and more aggressively than I had expected. It has now moved too far for it to be a good trade because the risk-to-reward ratio is now approximately 1:1. I will abandon this USD/CHF short trade for now.

GMT 16:47 – I’ve just come back from a nice Japanese dinner (I love Japanese food!) and a late night out in town. Now, I see a break to the downside on the USD/CAD pair (as anticipated). I will be looking to enter on a retracement because remember, I’m a bargain trader!  :-D

GMT 20:09 – Side note: I just took a quick look at the USD/CHF pair again, and guess what? Prices collapsed a 170 pips from our intended entry… Gah!! This is the price you pay for being a conservative trader… I have no choice but to stand my ground (i.e. stick to my plans) and watch 170 beautiful pips fly out the window…

GMT 21:00 – It’s getting late now but I see an opportunity in the EUR/USD pair. I’ve just went short @ 1.3140, SL @ 1.3163 (23 pips), PT @ 1.2910 (230 pips).

GMT 23:00 – Prices have moved 20 pips in my favor and I’ve moved my stop loss to 1.3139 – prices may keep going up (in the short term) and I’m going to protect my position. If I do get stopped out at breakeven, I may be looking to short this pair again soon.

Well, yesterday’s trade got stopped out although it was a good setup. But no matter, let’s accept it as a necessary business cost and move on to look for good trades.

Today, the USD/CAD pair looks especially tempting. Here’s the daily chart:

Yesterday, the price was not able to clear the downtrending resistance line, so today might be a good day for a short trade.

GMT 10:05 – I have just entered into a short trade @ 1.2405, SL @ 1.2505 (100 pips), PT @ 1.2005 (400 pips). If all goes well, this trade should last a few days.

GMT 13:39 - I don’t like the way the price is moving (it has not fallen significantly in the past 3 hours), so I’m going to be conservative and exit at breakeven. I will then wait for another signal to short again. It looks like today is going to be another doji on the daily chart.

Today I’ll be paying special attention to the and USD/CHF and GBP/USD pairs.

Yesterday, I was looking for the USD/CHF to drop, but it just ranged all day in a narrow band. Today, I’ll be looking to see if it there is any signal of it dropping.

For the GBP/USD, support line of the daily uptrend has been broken yesterday, so I’ll be looking to trade the continuation of the break:

GMT 08:25 – The GBP/USD has tried to break yesterday’s low of 1.4466 but was not successful. The closest it came was 1.4477 before the price shot up again.

GMT 10:00 – The previous hour candle shows a rejection above the 1.4570. I have entered into a short trade @ 1.4561, SL @ 1.4607 (46 pips), PT @ 1.4480 (81 pips). If the prive moves past the high of the previous 1 hour candle, I want to get out of the market immediately. This is an intraday trade.

GMT 10:56 – Price has moved 35 pips in my favor, and I’m moving my stop loss to 1.4560 (+1). This is now a guaranteed win trade. The question now is how many pips I’ll end up with when the trade is closed.

GMT 11:24 – The position got stopped out for a +1 gain. Sigh! The markets have been pretty volatile lately… all my in-the-money positions have so far been stopped out at (almost) breakeven!

GMT 15:40- Remember I was getting interested in trading the USD/CHF? Here’s the daily chart again in case you forgot why:

Well, I just took a peek at the 15 minute chart and guess what? The 2-day support level has been broken, and there was a failed test of the support level:

It’s a beautiful setup!

I immediately went short @ 1.1658, SL @ 1.1689 (30 pips) with PT @ 1.1470 (188 pips). Yes, I’m aiming for this to be a swing trade that might stretch a few days. However, due to the increased unpredictability of the market, I will set my stop loss to breakeven as soon as prices move significantly in my direction.